Yes, You Really Are Seeing the Same Black Friday Deals Every Year

Yes, You Really Are Seeing the Same Black Friday Deals Every Year
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From one year to the next, the bulk of the Black Friday sales are more or less the same as they were the year before. That means that once you know what to look for, figuring out what to expect from Black Friday 2019 is a piece of cake.

Before you get upset at the notion that you've been getting excited about the same deals every year, we want to emphasize that this is actually not a bad thing—if we know that certain items and categories will be marked down by the same amount every year, it makes it a lot easier to make up a holiday shopping list and realistic budget.

The doorbusters can vary, but they’re also exactly what you’d expect. You can count on bargain TVs, Beats headphones, hoverboards, and Instant Pots. But since doorbusters are usually constrained by limited inventory that also limit the window of opportunity along with the reduced likelihood that they’ll be available to purchase online, chances high are that you won’t be able to get them.

No, the bulk of Black Friday’s sales, the real meat of them, the stuff we actually get excited for, lies beyond the doorbusters. Look beyond page 1 of the ads and you’ll find plenty of genuine deals on just about everything under the sun, even if they are more than a little predictable.

But how will tariffs affect Black Friday sale prices?

Although the White House has delayed some tariffs until 12/15 specifically to avoid hitting shoppers' wallets during the busy holiday shopping season, prices are already rising thanks to two earlier rounds – one that went into effect on 9/1, and another that's expected to take effect on 10/1 – and many of the items impacted by those tariffs will be things on your Christmas lists. Prices on clothing, shoes, electronics, toys and more have already been raised on account of the 9/1 tariff, for example.

To put it another way, the prices on many holiday items are already higher, are scheduled to be hit again on October 1, and may climb even more in mid-December.

So as steady as Black Friday prices tend to be, the introduction of a series of tariffs on most goods imported from China creates the possibility that some items will cost a little more than we've noted in the past.

But before anyone panics, it's good to note that according to UBSmost of the things we buy don't actually come from China. We also know that a lot of Black Friday inventory was already paid for before the tariffs went into effect. Many retailers who saw this coming placed order with their suppliers early just to avoid the tariffs.

So, while the tariffs are certainly going to impact shoppers in the long term, and we may see higher prices here or there, your 2019 holiday budgets are probably pretty safe. One possible upside is that if the retailers who stockpiled inventory early overestimated demand, we could see some pretty sweet post-Christmas sales!

Last year’s Black Friday deals are this year’s Black Friday deals.

From one year to the next, the bulk of the Black Friday sales are more or less the same as they were the year before. Many major retailers only make superficial changes to the ad itself, often reusing the same layout and even the same product photos year after year.

Keep scrolling to see examples of Black Friday ads that haven't changed much, along with a handful of deals that haven't budged, either. We'll go out on a limb here and predict that most of these will be back in 2019 for the same price, or very close to it.

Walmart Black Friday Predictions

Walmart Black Friday Deals 2019

Walmart is extremely consistent, rarely varying its core Black Friday inventory pricing by more than a few cents. Walmart has also worked hard to reduce the amount of Chinese-made goods sold in its stores, down to just 26% in 2018 compared to an estimated 70-80% in 2016. The $19 wireless printer and $4.75 kids pajamas are particular favorites which are often found on our annual round up of the best Black Friday deals.

Wireless Printer

  • 2014: $29
  • 2015: $19
  • 2016: $19
  • 2017: $19
  • 2018: $19

Hotel Style 1,100 Thread Count Sheet Set

  • 2016: $25
  • 2017: $24
  • 2018: $24

Electric Griddle

  • 2014: $9.77
  • 2015: $9.72
  • 2016: $9.76
  • 2017: $9.88
  • 2018: $9.96

Fruit of the Loom Fleece Sleep Pants

  • 2015: $4
  • 2016: $4
  • 2017: $4
  • 2018: $4

Boys' or Girls' Character Sleep Set

  • 2014: $4.50
  • 2015: $4.75
  • 2016: $4.75
  • 2017: $4.75
  • 2018: $4.75

Check it out: Walmart Black Friday Ads

Target Black Friday Predictions

Target Black Friday Deals 2019

From one year to the next, Target is one of the most reliable Black Friday ads for finding repeated deals. Their clean signature layout makes them easy to spot. You can almost always count on a T-Fal or Farberware cookware set for $49.99, styled and photographed in exactly the same way even when the brands switch. It's a good bet you'll find Rachael Ray cookware as well, priced at $89.99 for several years now, and Pyrex sets that have been $18 on Black Friday for even longer. Even in our side-by-side view, the models are photographed in the same colors and similar clothes.

Skullcandy Ink'd Wireless Earbuds

  • 2016: $24.99
  • 2017: $24.99
  • 2018: $24.99

Barbie Bundle: Closet, Car, Barbie & Ken

  • 2015: $29
  • 2016: $29.99
  • 2017: $29.99
  • 2018: $29.99

Skyline 5-pc Luggage Set

  • 2014: $49
  • 2015: $49.99
  • 2016: $49.99
  • 2017: $48
  • 2018: $49.99

Foldable Kick Scooter

  • 2014: $19
  • 2015: $18
  • 2016: $18
  • 2017: $18
  • 2018: $18

Pyrex Food Storage Set

  • 2014: $18
  • 2015: $18
  • 2016: $18
  • 2017: $16.99
  • 2018: $18

Check it out: Target Black Friday Ads

Kohl's Black Friday Predictions

Kohl's Black Friday Deals 2019

Kohl’s is consistent with its annual promotion of giving $15 Kohl’s Cash for every $50 spent, up from the $10 per $50 that you get throughout the rest of the year, and we always look forward to it. There's also usually a 15% off coupon that runs during Black Friday week that drops many prices even further.

You'll want to read the fine print, however – many items are not eligible for additional discounts, including some that were coupon eligible just last year. For example, a foldable gaming chair has been $39.99 and coupon eligible for years, but in 2018 coupons could no longer be applied, stealthily raising the lowest price you could get by 15%.

Garmin Drive 50LM GPS

  • 2014: $79.99
  • 2015: $89.99
  • 2016: $89.99
  • 2017: $89.99
  • 2018: $89.99

KitchenAid Artisan Stand Mixer

  • 2014: $299.99
  • 2015: $299.99
  • 2016: $279.99
  • 2017: $279.99
  • 2018: $279.99

Samsonite Carry-On

  • 2014: $95.99
  • 2015: $95.99
  • 2016: $94.99
  • 2017: $94.99
  • 2018: $94.99

Fashion Boots

  • 2014: $19.99
  • 2015: $19.99
  • 2016: $19.99
  • 2017: $19.99
  • 2018: $19.99

Columbia Fleece Jacket

  • 2014: $29.99
  • 2015: $29.99
  • 2016: $29.99
  • 2017: $29.99
  • 2018: $29.99

Check it out: Kohl's Black Friday Ads

Macy's Black Friday Predictions

Macy's Black Friday Deals 2019

Cashmere sweaters are at such a great price point on Black Friday at Macy's that they've more or less earned a permanent spot of our list of the top Black Friday deals. Macy's rotates merchandise in and out of their Black Friday ad more often than some other merchants, but we still found plenty of consistency year over year on highly giftable brand names like Ninja and North Face.

Ninja Mega Kitchen System

  • 2017: $129.99
  • 2018: $129.99

3-pc Reversible Comforter Sets

  • 2014: $19.99
  • 2015: $19.99
  • 2016: $17.99
  • 2017: $17.99
  • 2018: $17.99

Tag Matrix Luggage, Any Size

  • 2017: $49.99
  • 2018: $49.99

Charter Club Cashmere Sweaters

  • 2014: $39.99
  • 2015: $39.99
  • 2016: $39.99
  • 2017: $39.99
  • 2018: $39.99

The North Face for Kids

  • 2017: $99.99
  • 2018: $99.99

Check it out: Macy's Black Friday Ads